455
FXHW60 PHFO 291312
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
312 AM HST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING
FRONT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS KAUAI,
WITH THE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
STATE WITH LAND BREEZES PRESENT IN MOST AREAS. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DRIFTING
ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY. THE
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS CONTINUED TO REVOLVE AROUND AN INCOMING
FRONT AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES PRESENT IN MOST
AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND LIGHT, WITH MOST
SHOWERS REMAINING OFFSHORE OR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY OVER THE ISLAND
INTERIORS, BUT ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO KAUAI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OAHU AND INTO MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE VICINITY OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO LAND AND SEA
BREEZE PATTERN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND INTERIOR CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN INCOMING WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER
KAUAI LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
BY FRIDAY. MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
OVER WINDWARD AND NORTHERN TERRAIN OF KAUAI AND OAHU. BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY
AND LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER TRENDS AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES EACH ISLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ISLANDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
TWO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ORIGINATING FROM A
BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW THAT EVOLVED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST MODERATE TO LARGE LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHILE AN OVERLAPPING STRONGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE
RISING NORTHWEST SWELL TODAY WILL BUILD COMBINED SEAS ABOVE OUR
10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU EXPOSED TO THIS NORTHWEST
SWELL ENERGY, AND AN SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AFFECTED WATERS.
THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA)
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI
AND OAHU. A HSA WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO COVER THE RAPIDLY
RISING SURF HEIGHTS FOR THESE EXPOSED SHORELINES. THIS WILL BE A
LONG DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THE RISING SWELL WILL SWIFTLY EXCEED
WARNING LEVELS FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SAME
NORTHWEST ISLANDS, EXPECT THE HSA TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE
ISLANDS OF MOLOKAI, MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
BY FRIDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN
EVEN LARGER, EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL ARRIVES
IN THE ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR WATER INUNDATION OVER
VULNERABLE LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD
WILL ESPECIALLY INCREASE IF THE PEAK SURF COINCIDES WITH THE
OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY AS A
SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL GRADUALLY DECLINES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-KAUAI NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...BOHLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page