653
FXHW60 PHFO 291904
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
904 AM HST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING
FRONT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS KAUAI,
WITH THE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT
LAND BREEZES FOR MOST AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OAHU AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER KAUAI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY
OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO KAUAI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OAHU AND INTO MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE VICINITY OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THIS MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED
FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ISLAND OF OAHU, WITH BRIEF COVERAGE ACROSS MAUI COUNTY. SEA
BREEZES WILL SET IN BY AFTERNOON AND BRING INTERIOR CLOUDS FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL AIRMET SIERRA AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR KAUAI AND BIG
ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
AN INCOMING WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER KAUAI
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS BY
FRIDAY. MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVER
WINDWARD AND NORTHERN TERRAIN OF KAUAI AND OAHU. NORTH WINDS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY AND LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER TRENDS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES EACH ISLAND. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
TWO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST MODERATE
TO LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU,
KAUAI AND OAHU, THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THESE SHORES REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE 10
FEET, THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) AROUND MOST KAUAI AND
OAHU WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHTLY BIGGER, AND LONGER
PERIOD NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.
THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PUSHING SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE WARNING LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. IN ADDITION THE SCA WILL ALSO
EXPAND TO MOST COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS NEXT SWELL. THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL DECLINE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
POTENTIALLY EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL MAY FILL
IN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR WATER INUNDATION OVER
VULNERABLE LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD
WILL ESPECIALLY INCREASE AS PEAK SURF HEIGHTS COINCIDES WITH THE
OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY AS A
SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL GRADUALLY DECLINES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-KAUAI NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...ALMANZA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page