428
FXHW60 PHFO 300159
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS, WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS KAUAI, WITH THE SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OAHU AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY, WITH
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIORS OF KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI THIS EVENING, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE TONIGHT ALLOWING ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO CLEAR.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO KAUAI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OAHU AND INTO MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE VICINITY OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA IS
POSTED FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS OF
OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI AND LANAI. SEA BREEZES WILL SWITCH TO LAND
BREEZES TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE CLOUD COVER OUT OVER THE ISLANDS,
WITH AIRMET SIERRA ENDING AROUND THIS TIME.
AN INCOMING WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER KAUAI
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY. MVFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVER WINDWARD AND NORTHERN
SLOPES AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS MAUI AND STALLS. NORTH WINDS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES EACH ISLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOW A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL STILL FILLING IN AND
WILL PEAK LOCALLY TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
EXPECT SURF HEIGHT TO PEAK AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE 10 FEET, THUS
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) AROUND MOST KAUAI AND OAHU WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHTLY BIGGER, AND LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST
(300-320 DEGREE) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP FRIDAY. THIS SECOND
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING
SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE WARNING LEVELS INTO SATURDAY FOR SELECT NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES. IN ADDITION THE SCA WILL ALSO EXPAND TO
MOST COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS NEXT SWELL. THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL DECLINE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL MAY FILL IN FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW-LYING SHORELINE
AND ROADWAYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SURF AND HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED WATER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES REMAIN SMALL.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-KAUAI NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...ALMANZA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page