004
FXHW60 PHFO 301403
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
403 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS OAHU THROUGH THE KAUAI
CHANNEL THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND ENHANCED
SHOWERS TO THE OTHER ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. MODERATE
TO BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW IN AS THE FRONT
PASSES EACH ISLAND. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO
MONDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS NEXT
FRONTAL BAND AS THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MARCH EASTWARD DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
DIMINISHING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOL AND
DRY, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW INTO THE
REGION AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNINGS BIG PICTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE KAUAI CHANNEL TOWARDS
OAHU. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM A POLAR JET STREAM FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU TODAY, OAHU WILL SEE INCREASING
SHOWER TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND ROLLS INTO
THE GATHERING PLACE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND WILL REACH MOLOKAI
AROUND NOON HST, LANAI AND MAUI AROUND 2 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THE BIG ISLAND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND WITH
DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH
EACH SET OF ISLAND TERRAIN. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WITH DECREASING
SHOWER TRENDS WILL BLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT, INDICATING THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH YOUR LOCAL AREA.
A HIGH PRESSURE CELL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FAIRLY STABLE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MOST ISLANDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST, COLD AIR AND TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN, FAVORING SOUTH AND WEST SLOPES OF EACH
ISLAND INTO MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NIIHAU AND KAUAI AROUND NOON HST MONDAY WITH SIMILAR TRENDS OF
INCREASING SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND. THIS FRONT
APPEARS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND MORE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE LATEST
TIMING ON THIS NEXT FRONT SHOWS THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND SPREADING
SHOWERS INTO OAHU BY MONDAY EVENING, TO THE ISLANDS IN MAUI COUNTY
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND FINALLY STALLING NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND. COOL, DRY AND
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BLOW IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS HANA HOU WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY TRADES AS A HIGH CENTER
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER, EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
BRINGING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AS THE WEATHER FORECAST WITH THIS
THIRD FRONT MAY TURN THREATENING AND ISLAND BY ISLAND IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER TIME.
AVIATION
AN ADVANCING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS
OF INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES. WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERN AS THE FRONT PASSES, VEERING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND LANAI AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE SOUTH.
MARINE
A FRONT MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. LIGHT
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
NEARSHORE BUOYS AT HANALEI AND WAIMEA SHOW THAT A MODERATE TO
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS, PUSHING SURF
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WELL INTO ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A BIGGER AND LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST
(300-320 DEGREE) OVERLAPPING SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS SECOND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE WARNING LEVELS
INTO SATURDAY FOR SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. WITH THIS
MORNING'S FORECAST UPDATES, A HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU,
AND MOLOKAI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND. IN ADDITION, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL WINDWARD WATERS AND CHANNELS EXPOSED TO
THE NORTHWEST SWELLS, WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
10 TO 14 FOOT RANGE. THESE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL DECLINE
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN EXTRA LARGE
NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL MAY FILL IN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING
SHORELINE AND ROADWAYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SURF AND
HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WATER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. SURF ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SHORES WILL ALSO REMAIN SMALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU AND MOLOKAI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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