820
FXHW60 PHFO 310157
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT, MOVING ACROSS MAUI LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD PORTIONS OF BOTH MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND BRING MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS
WILL PEAK ON MONDAY, DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND MAY BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN
RAINBAND WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD PUSH DOWN THE CHAIN
ON LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY, BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A DISORGANIZED
LINE OF LOW CLOUDS ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS. THIS LINE WAS TRUDGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAIN AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN RATHER
DISMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50" ALONG
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
LEEWARD. MEANWHILE, MOLOKAI AND MAUI HAVE SO FAR REGISTERED ONLY
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE WEAK FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND LOSE WHAT LITTLE
FORCING IT HAD TO WORK WITH. THUS, HAD TO SCALE BACK SOME OF THE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. POST FRONTAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND BRING LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT,
COMBINED WITH SHALLOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DECEASED FRONT,
WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE LOWER SLOPES OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.
LATE THIS WEEKEND, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE, SOUTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY, THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS, DEPICTING SPEEDS OF SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGETOPS AND IN THE LEE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. IF GUIDANCE MAINTAINS
OR TRENDS UP, A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEED FOR SELECT MOUNTAIN
ZONES AND THOSE ZONES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BIG
ISLAND SUMMIT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG LATE MONDAY AND MAY
BREAK ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. IN ADDITION, A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERALLY HALF
INCH TO INCH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ALONG SOUTH AND WEST
FACING PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS
ALWAYS, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SPEEDY NATURE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLOOD RISK, BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, POST FRONTAL BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AS TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS PROG YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS
ARE STILL TO HAZY THAT FAR OUT INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE.
AVIATION
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS. THE BIG ISLAND SITES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED
TO BE SPARED OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL FLOW NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES SETTING UP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ABOVE 1500 FEET FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS.
MARINE
A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL EASE AND SHIFT
OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE STATE. MEANWHILE, GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND. THE LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND WILL
BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER, STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME WATERS AS WINDS PEAK MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED SURF DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM LOW
FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII GENERATED OVERLAPPING WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST (295 TO 320 DEGREES) SWELLS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS. THE FIRST SWELL HAS PEAKED, AND THE SECOND HAS BEEN
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN TOTAL SEAS OF 13 TO 16
FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT SWELL PERIOD ENERGY RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
17 SECONDS AT THE NOAA BUOYS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. RESULTING SURF
WILL PEAK TONIGHT ABOVE HIGH SURF WARNING LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI AND AT HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH MAUI AND WEST BIG ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO THE ELEVATED SEAS.
AS THE SWELL DECLINES, THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, HIGHER THAN PREDICTED TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL AS SOME
SOME BEACH EROSION DURING PEAK HIGH TIDES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RUNUP AND
BEACH EROSION TONIGHT ALONG NORTH AND WEST SHORES EXPOSED TO THE
LARGE SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-KAUAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-KONA-KOHALA-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...WROE
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