169
FXHW60 PHFO 310635
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
835 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 835 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH AND LIFT
NORTH THIS WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER TRENDS. ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH HAWAII LATE SUNDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LASTING INTO MONDAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS NEXT FRONTAL BAND AS
THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MARCH EASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DIMINISHING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOL AND DRY, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW INTO THE REGION AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH ISLAND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS EVENINGS SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
STALLING OUT NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED LINGERING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES INTO A TROUGH AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING SUPPORTING THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FALLS
APART. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MORE STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS A MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.25
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MAUI COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OAHU AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY, WITH
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIORS OF KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI THIS EVENING, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE TONIGHT ALLOWING ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO CLEAR.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO KAUAI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OAHU AND INTO MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE VICINITY OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 357 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA IS
POSTED FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS OF
OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI AND LANAI. SEA BREEZES WILL SWITCH TO LAND
BREEZES TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE CLOUD COVER OUT OVER THE ISLANDS,
WITH AIRMET SIERRA ENDING AROUND THIS TIME.
AN INCOMING WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER KAUAI
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY. MVFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVER WINDWARD AND NORTHERN
SLOPES AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS MAUI AND STALLS. NORTH WINDS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2026
A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES EACH
ISLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.
OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOW A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL FILLING IN. BASED ON
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI, NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI, AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT SURF
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SWELL TO PEAK OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE 10 FEET, THUS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SCA HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED A BIT EASTWARD WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATES.
A BIGGER, AND LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREE) SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO OVERLAP FRIDAY. THIS SECOND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE WARNING
LEVELS INTO SATURDAY FOR SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. IN
ADDITION, THE SCA WILL ALSO EXPAND TO MOST COASTAL WATERS WITH
THIS NEXT SWELL. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL DECLINE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330
DEGREE) SWELL MAY FILL IN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING
SHORELINE AND ROADWAYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SURF AND
HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WATER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. SURF ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SHORES WILL ALSO REMAIN SMALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL.
UPDATE...BOHLIN
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...WROE
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