603
FXHW60 PHFO 311354
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
354 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF THREE COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS HAS DISSIPATED INTO A
TROUGH NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAWAII FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LASTING INTO MONDAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS NEXT FRONTAL BAND AS
THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MARCH EASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DIMINISHING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE THIRD COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST OF THE THREE SYSTEMS, AND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION FROM NEXT WEEK FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BLOW INTO THE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
LOOKING INTO THE BIG PICTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, WE
SEE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW DISSIPATED COLD FRONT NEAR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN WITH LIMITED SHOWER
POTENTIAL AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNS TO THE REGION
LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAIN
RANGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VOG (VOLCANIC SMOG) HAZY EMISSIONS FROM KILAUEA VOLCANO ON THE
BIG ISLAND THAT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO ALL SMALLER ISLANDS EAST OF
KAUAI BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT SWIFTLY MOVES EASTWARD DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN ON MONDAY; DRIVING AWAY THIS VOG PLUME. EXPECT
AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF NIIHAU,
KAUAI AND OAHU WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK APART OVER
ISLAND MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
AS FRONT WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. COOL AND
DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BLOW IN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EACH
ISLAND, DECREASING SHOWER TRENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE THIRD COLD FRONT IN THE SERIES WILL BE STRONGER STILL WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL
ISLANDS AS THE SYSTEM SWEEPS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY IT REMAINS TO EARLY TO
INCLUDE AN ISLAND BY ISLAND HEAVY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS
THESE MESOSCALE (SMALLER SCALE) BANDING FEATURES WILL NEED TO WAIT
UNTIL THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD GROWS SHORTER. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BLOW IN FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER EACH ISLAND.
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF COLDER WEATHER DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR MORE EFFICIENTLY RADIATES SURFACE
HEAT BACK INTO OUTER SPACE, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING OUR OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS BY NEXT SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN THE 11,000 TO 12,000 FOOT
LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM, BASED ON THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS. AT SEVEN DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD, MANY OF THESE
WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY, AND THE FORECAST
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS OUR WEATHER MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE OVER TIME. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
A WEAKENING TROUGH LINGERING OVER MAUI COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST EARLY, THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, ALLOWING LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR OAHU, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND MAUI. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE.
MARINE
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAKENING TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHILE GENTLE AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE BIG ISLAND. TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE MOVES
EASTWARD. THESE LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND WILL BUILD TO
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER,
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME WATERS AS WINDS PEAK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SURF DUE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII GENERATED
OVERLAPPING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST (295 TO 320 DEGREES)
SWELLS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. NOAA OFFSHORE
BUOYS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI ARE STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TOTAL SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FEET AND
SIGNIFICANT SWELL PERIOD ENERGY RANGING BETWEEN 14 AND 17 SECONDS.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, AND THE FACT THAT NEARSHORE BUOYS AT
HANALEI, WAIMEA, AND PAUWELA ARE ALSO ALREADY RUNNING A COUPLE
FEET ABOVE GUIDANCE, SURF HEIGHTS FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
WERE BUMPED UP A BIT FOR TODAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER, HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU,
AND MOLOKAI TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR WATERS
EXPOSED TO THE ELEVATED SEAS. AS THE SWELL DECLINES, THE WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED THIS EVENING OR TOMORROW
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, HIGHER THAN PREDICTED TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL AS SOME
SOME BEACH EROSION DURING PEAK HIGH TIDES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RUNUP AND
BEACH EROSION THOUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS
MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG
NORTH AND WEST SHORES EXPOSED TO THE LARGE SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU AND MOLOKAI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS AND CHANNELS EXPOSED TO THIS LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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