457
FXHW60 PHFO 010633
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
833 PM HST SAT JAN 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE STALLING
OUT AND DIMINISHING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BLOW IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION
FROM NEXT WEEK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BLOW INTO THE REGION AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THE SATELLITE PICTURE THIS EVENING SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUD AREAS
LINGERING NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE VERY STABLE AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM OUR WEATHER
BALLOON LAUNCHES AT LIHUE AND HILO AT 2 PM HST (00Z) THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4,000 TO
5,000 FEET ELEVATION. THESE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE VERY STABLE
FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND SUPPORT
LIMITED CLOUDS AND ALMOST ZERO RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THESE STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE
TOMORROW AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KICK UP MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT, STARTING OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHOW INCREASING
TRENDS AS TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE INTO MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM HST SAT JAN 31 2026
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE IS
ALSO A SEA-BREEZE COMPONENT ADDED IN SO THAT WINDS ARE BLOWING
IN FROM THE COAST IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA, WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS SO FAR. OTHERWISE, SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
LEEWARD SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH
WINDWARD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW VOG TO REMAIN AN ISSUE
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN LIGHT WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SW WINDS OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONG SW WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO KAUAI COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, OAHU AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND
MAUI COUNTY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY,
REACHING THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WEAKENING THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG, SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT. MODERATE NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PULL THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT BACK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE, SO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS IS LIKELY EVEN BEFORE THIS NEW FRONT ARRIVES. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT REACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN PASSING OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT, SO THIS TIMING IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. AT THIS TIME, MODELS DEPICT THIS AS A STRONG
FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, SO HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
WINDS, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 325 PM HST SAT JAN 31 2026
A WEAKENING TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
SUNDAY.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE
2000 FEET FOR MAUI. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM HST SAT JAN 31 2026
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE STATE MOVES EASTWARD. THESE LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME WATERS AS WINDS PEAK MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
LARGE SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY FADE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SURF DUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII
GENERATED OVERLAPPING WEST- NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST (295 TO 320
DEGREES) SWELLS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE ISLANDS, WITH THE
NORTHWEST (320 DEGREES) SWELL BECOMING DOMINANT. NOAA OFFSHORE
BUOYS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE SWELLS SLOWLY
DECLINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND THE
GRADUAL DECLINE IN SWELL NOTED AT THE HANALEI AND WAIMEA NEARSHORE
BUOYS, DECIDED TO DROP THE HIGH SURF WARNING AND GO WITH A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI, AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6
AM HST SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS EXPOSED TO THE ELEVATED SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLD INTO THE
EVENING, THEN SLOWLY DECLINE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, HIGHER THAN PREDICTED TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL AS SOME
SOME BEACH EROSION DURING PEAK HIGH TIDES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RUNUP AND
BEACH EROSION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG NORTH
AND WEST SHORES EXPOSED TO THE LARGE SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI. NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI AND WEST FACING SHORES OF BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS AND CHANNELS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL.
UPDATE...BOHLIN
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...FARRIS
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