721
FXHW60 PHFO 011357
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 AM HST SUN FEB 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT LARGE SCALE WINDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME ONSHORE SEA BREEZES IN
THE FORECAST TODAY FOR ALL ISLANDS WITH STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
DIMINISHING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BLOW IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES.
DISCUSSION
LOOKING INTO THE BIG PICTURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING WE SEE A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE DIMINISHING AT THIS
HOUR. LIGHT LARGE SCALE WINDS UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW LOCAL SCALE ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER ALL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH RELATIVELY LOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT
CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 750
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD
BANDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AIR BETWEEN KAUAI AND THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THESE WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, GENERATING SOME
PREFRONTAL CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWER TRENDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE ENHANCED WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG FAVORED NORTH
AND EAST SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY FOR OAHU
ALONG THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON MONDAY. THESE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
THE MAIN RAIN EVENT ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SWIFTLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ISLANDS
OF NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BAND.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ISLANDS IN MAUI COUNTY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, REACHING THE BIG ISLAND AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND BREAKS UP OVER EACH
SET OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATE FOR
THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE WITH
DECREASING AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS IN MAUI AND HAWAII
COUNTIES IN THE ROUGHLY 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE AS THE FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND WEAKENS. COOL AND DRIER, MORE STABLE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EACH ISLAND.
THE BEST WAY TO OBSERVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE: THE ONSET OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THIS HANA HOU (ENCORE) WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LIGHT LARGE SCALE WINDS RETURN TO THE
REGION, ALLOWING LOCAL SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER
TRENDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM,
WHICH MEANS HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL CLOUD
BAND. THE TIMING AND ISLAND BY ISLAND TRACK OF THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT, DUE TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, REMAINS LESS
CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY DECIDED TO STALL THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS COLD FRONT AS A STRONG CUT OFF LOW FORMS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST MAY SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER THE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY TIME PERIOD.
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FORECAST UPDATES WITH THIS
STORM, AS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
EVOLVE AS THE TIME PERIOD GROWS SHORTER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LARGE SCALE WINDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME ONSHORE
SEABREEZES OVER ALL ISLANDS. LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE
AND SHOWER TRENDS WILL INCREASE STARTING ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY, LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A FRONT APPROACHES, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT OUT OF
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTRA-LARGE SURF DUE TUESDAY. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED, AS SURF WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS MORNING, AND THE SCA FOR ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS HAS ALSO BEEN
DROPPED. SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL DIMINISH TO
SMALL HEIGHTS BY MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVE.
THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL (310 TO 325 DEGREES) WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OVERLAPPING
PULSES PASS THROUGH HAWAIIAN WATERS. SURF ALONG MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES WILL EASILY EXCEED HIGH SURF WARNING LEVELS,
AND SEAS WILL EXCEED THE 10 FOOT SCA THRESHOLD IN MANY AREAS. THE
SWELL WILL DECLINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SURF FALLING BELOW
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE SWELL IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, THOUGH AN INCREASE IS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST SHORES
NEXT WEEKEND.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY,
AS PEAK MONTHLY TIDES COINCIDE WITH HIGHER THAN PREDICTED OCEAN
LEVELS. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
AS WELL AS SOME SOME BEACH EROSION DURING PEAK HIGH TIDES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...WROE
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