721
FXHW60 PHFO 020639
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
839 PM HST SUN MAR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED INTO A TROUGH AND REMAINS NORTHWEST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES AND ISLAND INTERIOR
SECTIONS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER
SLIGHTLY FROM A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FROM THURSDAY ON
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THE LARGE BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL ALTO
STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
HAS STALLED AND DIMINISHED INTO A TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND OF KAUAI.
TRADE WINDS BLOW INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SHIFT FROM A MORE EAST- SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, WEAKENING
AND LIFTING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. LOCAL SCALE SEA BREEZE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TERRAIN SHELTERED SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND
AS THE LARGE SCALE WINDS WEAKEN. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM HST SUN MAR 1 2026.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK. THE BOUNDARY
UPSTREAM OF KAUAI HAS MADE LITTLE TO NO FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY,
SEA BREEZES HAVE STRUGGLED TO ESTABLISH OWING TO ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS, AND SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI AND OAHU HAVE ESSENTIALLY
REMAINED IN PLACE WHILE STRATIFORM ELEMENTS PEEL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION, REGENERATING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD OAHU
HAVE DISSIPATED IN RESPONSE TO BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALL TOLD,
AN UNEVENTFUL, CLOUDY, AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE STATE. GOING
FORWARD, BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTHENING, BUT PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
IN TURN ENSURES THE RETURN OF TRADES TONIGHT WHICH THEN BECOME
BREEZY DURING MID-WEEK. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE WEEK AS
TRADES VEER TO ESE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED WINDWARD AND MAUKA. HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ALTOGETHER BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
A WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LAND/SEA BREEZES TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS ON
THE LOWER END BASED ON WEATHER MODEL GUIDANCE, SO MADE USE OF VCSH
AND PROB30 WHERE RAIN CHANCES WERE FELT TO BE THE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY, OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST SITES FOR THE PERIOD.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO UPPER-
LEVEL TURBULENCE FROM FL200-400 DUE TO THIS FRONT, WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO TOMORROW AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. PATCHY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT, HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST
THAT THE THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LAYER 120-180.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 PM HST SUN MAR 1 2026.
A DISSIPATED FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL BUILD IN BY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT VEER EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL (310 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THROUGH MONDAY. SURF SHOULD REMAIN SMALL THOUGH THE WEEK WITH A
SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED DUE
TO A SHORT-TO MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHEAST (40 DEGREES) SWELL, THEN
DECLINE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, PERIOD AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AS FRESH TRADE WINDS REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE INTO MARCH.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BOHLIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...FOSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page