343
FXHW60 PHFO 021311
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW THE
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, INCLUDING ALL ISLAND INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY FROM A MORE
EAST- SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FROM THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL ALTO
STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW INTO THE REGION
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SHIFT FROM A MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WEAKENING AND LIFTING THE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS NORTHWARD. LOCAL
SCALE SEA BREEZE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TERRAIN SHELTERED SLOPES
OF EACH ISLAND AS THE LARGE SCALE WINDS WEAKEN. LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOK. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR UNSTABLE STATEWIDE RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BEFORE TRADE
WINDS BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE TRADE WINDS RETURN,
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILL IN AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS BACK
OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR WITH SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO UPPER-
LEVEL TURBULENCE FROM FL200-400, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE DOWN TO THE LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LAYER 120-180 AND WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATER TODAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED INTO A TROUGH AND WILL LINGER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY CHANNELS AND WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY THAT TIME. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT VEER EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, BUT STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, TODAY AS A
MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL (310 DEGREES) CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE ISLANDS. SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SMALL THOUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED DUE
TO A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST (40 DEGREES) SWELL THAT WILL MAINTAIN
TODAY, THEN DECLINE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THIS NORTHEAST SWELL
DECLINES, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS FRESH TRADE WINDS REDEVELOP AND EXPAND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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