086
FXHW60 PHFO 021926
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
926 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE
WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO A MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, SHIFTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD
SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, AS WELL AS
SOME INTERIOR AREAS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
THIS MORNING’S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE CONVERGING ALONG A BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS, PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. ASIDE
FROM THAT, LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS ON THE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
RAINFALL HAS BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH RECORDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OAHU OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, ALONG WITH THEIR SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS, SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE BROADER FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL BACK IN AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN VEER SLIGHTLY
OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING’S UPDATE. PLEASE
SEE THE EARLIER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
THE LARGE BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL ALTO
STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW INTO THE REGION
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SHIFT FROM A MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WEAKENING AND LIFTING THE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS NORTHWARD. LOCAL
SCALE SEA BREEZE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TERRAIN SHELTERED SLOPES
OF EACH ISLAND AS THE LARGE SCALE WINDS WEAKEN. LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOK. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR UNSTABLE STATEWIDE RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 926 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BEFORE TRADE
WINDS BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE TRADE WINDS RETURN,
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILL IN AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS BACK
OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR WITH SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO MID-UPPER
LEVEL TURBULENCE FROM FL200-360 AND FROM 140-FL200 FOR MOLOKAI
THROUGH MAUI. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND MOVE DOWN TO THE LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LAYER 120-180 AND WILL LIKELY
DECREASE LATER TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM HST MON MAR 2 2026
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED INTO A TROUGH AND WILL LINGER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY CHANNELS AND WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY THAT TIME. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT VEER EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, BUT STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, TODAY AS A
MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL (310 DEGREES) CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE ISLANDS. SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN SMALL THOUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED DUE
TO A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST (40 DEGREES) SWELL THAT WILL MAINTAIN
TODAY, THEN DECLINE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THIS NORTHEAST SWELL
DECLINES, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS FRESH TRADE WINDS REDEVELOP AND EXPAND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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