796
FXHW60 PHFO 030202
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
402 PM HST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE
WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO A MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, SHIFTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD
SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, AS WELL AS
SOME INTERIOR AREAS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
THE BROAD BAND OF HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS, TIED TO A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME, WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS STATEWIDE BY MIDWEEK.
BY THURSDAY, WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT LIKELY STALL WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP LOW TRACKS
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AS THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WEAKENS
DURING THIS PERIOD, LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
TERRAIN-SHELTERED SLOPES. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COULD BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO GRADUALLY RETURN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
AT LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS. EXPECT THESE TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING TOMORROW. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF SHOWERS TO START
FOCUSING OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR UPPER LEVEL
MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN FL280-FL360. AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MID LEVEL MODERATE TURBULENCE FROM OAHU TO BIG ISLAND
BETWEEN 140-FL200. THE MID LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY
THIS EVENING, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, BUT ON A WEAKENING TREND. LIGHT
ICING IS POSSIBLE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 130-FL230 DUE TO THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AS TRADE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH EXPANDS THE
AREA THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INTO THE
WINDWARD WATERS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED TONIGHT (BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS) AS A MODERATE,
MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL (310 DEGREES) CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
ISLANDS. SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN SMALL THOUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST (40 DEGREES) SWELL WILL FADE TONIGHT AND BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING, SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY CONDITIONS AS FRESH TRADE
WINDS REDEVELOP AND EXPAND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP SURF
ALONG EXPOSED EAST-FACING SHORES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...WROE/QUESADA
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