839
FXHW60 PHFO 031943
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
943 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TRADE WINDS WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO A MORE EAST- SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, SHIFTING
SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF MOST
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED. AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WET WEATHER BY
EARLY- TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
SHOWER COVERAGE TIED TO A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN, LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS FILTERING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY, ALLOWING THE EASTERLY TRADES TO STRENGTHEN TO
BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE. SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
AN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A SWATH OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FADES. AT THE SURFACE, A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. THIS FEATURE HAS ACTED TO TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN EASTERLY TRADES TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS FLOW REGIME,
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY AFFECTED WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE ISLANDS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH CONTINUING TO DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADES WITH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER EAST
SOUTHEAST AND EASE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISING
BY THE FEW THOUSAND FEET, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. THUS,
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGIONS AS
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOP, BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.
EARLY- TO MID NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO NUDGE
THE DEEP TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS HAWAII AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE OCCURS, EXPECT UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 351 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND TRADES GAIN A STRONGER INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD SITES
TO START OFF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
WINDWARD SITES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND PATTERN,
HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MODERATE TRADE BREEZES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BETWEEN FL290 AND FL370 ACROSS THE ISLANDS, HOWEVER AS THIS
ONGOING SYSTEM DISSIPATES, THIS TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN FL130 AND FL230
FROM MAUI TO THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, HOWEVER AS
THESE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT FROM THE AREA, THE ICING
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 351 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO EAST SOUTH EAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS VEER, THE SCA WILL EXPAND TO
ADD MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING TOWARDS THE ENDING OF THE WEEK, WINDS LOOK TO
VEER TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE CURRENT MODERATE MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL GRADUALLY
DECLINED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL LOOKS
TO BUILD IN SATURDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY AS FRESH TRADE WINDS
REDEVELOP AND EXPAND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP SURF
ALONG EXPOSED EAST-FACING SHORES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST
WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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