915
FXHW60 PHFO 040629
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
829 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BRING LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TRADE WINDS WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, SHIFTING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF MOST
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED. AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WET WEATHER BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWED A SCATTERING OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPREADING SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE, IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CAUGHT IN
THE TRADES WERE NOTED MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THE 00Z SOUNDING
AT HILO AND LIHUE BOTH INDICATED A RATHER SHALLOW INVERSION
HEIGHT, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5,000 TO 6,000 FEET. THIS HAS ACTED TO
PUT A LID ON SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
AT BEST. ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL ALONG WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE OVER KOHALA
MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHWESTERN BIG ISLAND WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS,
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE APPROACHED HALF AN INCH. IN THE
UPDATE, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT OVER THE KOHALA MOUNTAINS AND DECREASED CHANCES IN
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES
WERE NEEDED.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES.
PREV DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENE THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE STATE
AND ONLY LIMITED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE TRADE FLOW REMAINS
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE EAST, THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, AS EVIDENCED BY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING MORE PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN IN AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING INCREASED STABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING TRADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ALONG WITH THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
BY THURSDAY, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THIS
PATTERN, SHOWERS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, ALONG WITH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE OTHER
ISLANDS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES IN THE LIGHTER,
SOMEWHAT BLOCKED FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE STATE AS ITS PARENT LOW SHOOTS OFF TO THE FAR NORTHWEST.
THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER FEATURES IN THE PACIFIC BECOMES LESS
CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THAT LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST COULD DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES) TOWARD OR OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS MOISTURE BAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
STABLE TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. POCKETS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY,
BUT VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. AIRMET TANGO FOR
LEE TURB IS IN EFFECT AND WILL SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2026
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND OAHU
AND KAUAI AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE, BUT THE SCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A COLD
FRONTAL LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LOCAL WINDS COULD VEER INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY.
THE SMALL, DECREASING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DECLINE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY ALSO BE VERY
SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY
EAST SHORE SURF WILL BUILD TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY
AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF WINDS VEER
SOUTHERLY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO
TINY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND SOME ISLANDS MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CHOPPY SURF IF SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PEAK MONTHLY HIGH
TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED.
THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-
LYING COASTAL AREAS DURING THE HIGH TIDE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...BOHLIN/QUESADA
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