482
FXHW60 PHFO 041352
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 AM HST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TODAY. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TRADE WINDS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO A MORE EAST- SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS A
FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND INTERIOR
REGIONS OF MOST ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER, OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WET WEATHER
BY EARLY TO MID- NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
HELPED MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES LAST
NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD LOCATIONS.
SEVERAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER
SUNDOWN.
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW EASTERLY TRADES TO WEAKEN
AND VEER EAST SOUTHEASTERLY. IN THIS REGIME, SHOWERS TEND TO
FAVOR SOUTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI,
ALONG WITH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES IN THE LIGHTER, BLOCKED FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT WEST OF THE STATE, THEN
EVENTUALLY LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAWAII FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
AND BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BY MID
WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN DEEPENING THIS UNSTABLE
MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE STATE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS NEXT STORM. THE GFS GENERATES A MUCH STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A DEEPER PARENT SURFACE LOW AND GREATER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A WEAKER PARENT LOW, LESS MOISTURE, AND
A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDING FARTHER NORTH OF
THE STATE. THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXISTS, DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
MODERATELY BREEZY TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
SITES, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE BELOW 8 KFT ALONG
LEEWARD SITES OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE ONGOING TRADE PATTERN.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AS WINDS FURTHER NORTH WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER. PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL WINDS
MAY VEER FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A
COLD FRONTAL LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST.
A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A NEW SMALL OVERLAPPING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
CAUSE ANOTHER BUMP UP IN SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY ALSO BE VERY SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY EAST SHORE SURF WILL BUILDS TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER AND EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE DECLINE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND SOME
ISLANDS MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CHOPPY SURF IF SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...BOHLIN/QUESADA
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