431
FXHW60 PHFO 050150
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 PM HST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
ALONG SOUTHEAST- AND EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI, WITH SEA BREEZES AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A WETTER AND MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY TRADES VEERED TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLIER
TODAY, A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, INTERACTING
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN THIS PATTERN, SHOWERS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST- AND
EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, ALONG WITH LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS STATEWIDE AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
LIGHTER, SOMEWHAT BLOCKED FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, KEEPING THE FRONT STALLED JUST WEST
OF THE ISLANDS WHILE ITS PARENT LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND
SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES) OVER PORTIONS OF, OR POSSIBLY THE
ENTIRE, STATE BEGINNING EARLY TO MIDWEEK. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND, COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, COULD
SUPPORT A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING. HOWEVER, IMPORTANT DETAILS, INCLUDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, ARE STILL COMING INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
MODERATELY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT, THEN TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA, WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE USUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STILL, MOST SITES WILL HAVE VFR.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE BELOW 8 KFT ALONG
LEEWARD SITES OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE ONGOING TRADE PATTERN.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY
DUE TO THE HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN SLIGHTLY EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. FRESH TO STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THE EXTENDED, LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION NEXT WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
GETS TO THE ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE SURF THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIAN H1/10 FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 12
FEET (GODDARD-CALDWELL DATABASE). THE FIRST SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SMALL SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPACT STORM-FORCE LOW CURRENTLY JUST
OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
CHOPPY EAST SHORE SURF DID INCREASE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES SHOULD DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND SOME ISLANDS MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN CHOPPY SURF IF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SMALL LONG- PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...KINO
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