119
FXHW60 PHFO 050628
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
828 PM HST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
ALONG SOUTHEAST- AND EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI, WITH SEA BREEZES AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A WETTER AND MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST WED MAR 4 2026
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, THEREFORE REQUIRING NO
MAJOR AMENDMENTS. TO MAINTAIN THE LATEST TRENDS, HOWEVER, OPTED TO
AMENDING THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
THE INCOMING LOW LAXES. OVERALL LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST- AND EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI, AS WELL AS LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS ACROSS THE
STATE AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP WITHIN THE LIGHTER, SEMI-BLOCKED
FLOW, WHICH THE LATEST FORECAST DOES AN EXCELLENT JOB DEPICTING.
PREV DISCUSSION
BREEZY TRADES VEERED TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLIER
TODAY, A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, INTERACTING
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN THIS PATTERN, SHOWERS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST- AND
EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, ALONG WITH LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS STATEWIDE AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
LIGHTER, SOMEWHAT BLOCKED FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, KEEPING THE FRONT STALLED JUST WEST
OF THE ISLANDS WHILE ITS PARENT LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND
SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES) OVER PORTIONS OF, OR POSSIBLY THE
ENTIRE, STATE BEGINNING EARLY TO MIDWEEK. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND, COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, COULD
SUPPORT A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING. HOWEVER, IMPORTANT DETAILS, INCLUDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS, ARE STILL COMING INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
MODERATELY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT, THEN TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA, WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE USUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STILL, MOST SITES WILL HAVE VFR.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE BELOW 8 KFT ALONG
LEEWARD SITES OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE ONGOING TRADE PATTERN.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST WED MAR 4 2026
TRADE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY
DUE TO THE HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN SLIGHTLY EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT PASSES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND LINGERS
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW'S COLD FRONT MAKING A CLOSE
APPROACH OR EVEN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID-
WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS TO
THE ISLANDS.
SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS A
SERIES OF SMALL WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS REACH THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW SMALL
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE FIRST ON THURSDAY,
AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST THAT
MAINTAINS THE SMALL SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMPACT STORM-
FORCE LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ANOTHER SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHOPPY EAST SHORE SURF DID INCREASE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES SHOULD DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS VEER
SOUTHERLY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT MAY INCREASE AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CHOPPY WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...QUESADA
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