894
FXHW60 PHFO 051828
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
828 AM HST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE ESE WINDS PREVAILS INTO
MONDAY. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH AND DRAW NORTH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 819 AM HST THU MAR 5 2026
DRY AND STABLE MODERATE ESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLOCKING OF THE FLOW BY THE LARGER ISLANDS WILL FACILITATE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE THAT WILL
FAVOR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LAND
BREEZES THEN BRING CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MAY BE PARTICULARLY ACTIVE. BY LATE THIS WEEK, THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MODELED TO
SETTLE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ISLANDS AS BROAD ESE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW PRESSURE NESTLED WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT OF DIGGING
PACIFIC JET WILL ABSORB THIS REMNANT FRONTAL BAND AND USHER IT EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT, MOST LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY OF KAUAI. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THE FRONT
VERTICALLY ALLOWING HEAVY SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG IT. AT THE SAME TIME, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS
PWATS OF AT LEAST 1.75" INTO THE FORECAST AREA DEEPENING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN, AND
ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AGGREGATE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ESTABLISHED NW OF THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PROVIDING PERIODS OF STRONGER FORCING
AS THE FRONTAL BAND SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST. ON THIS MUCH, GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY STRONG. CLARITY ON TIMING FOR EACH ISLAND
AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL, INCLUDING POTENTIAL RAIN RATES, WILL
COME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER AND
ESPECIALLY ONCE IT ENTERS THE HI-RES WINDOW. WORTH NOTING THAT
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL-AT-BEST AT THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST MUTE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, A POTENTIALLY
LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS POISED TO MANIFEST OVER THE
ISLANDS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 819 AM HST THU MAR 5 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF DUE EAST TODAY AS
THEY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE TODAY, WITH
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY BRINGING BRIEF MVFR, MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS OUT AND NONE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 819 AM HST THU MAR 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS TODAY. WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT
PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, AND WINDS MAY EVEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY
JUST WEST OF KAUAI FOR A TIME BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THIS GENERAL WIND PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW'S COLD
FRONT MAKING A CLOSE APPROACH, OR EVEN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST
OFFSHORE WATERS, BY MID-WEEK. LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE COLD FRONT GETS TO THE
ISLANDS.
SURF ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS A
SERIES OF SMALL LONG- TO MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE FORERUNNERS
OF THE NEXT SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL THAT MAINTAINS THE SMALL SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COMPACT STORM-FORCE LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHOPPY EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS VARY MINIMALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH A CHANCE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL THEN DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT MAY INCREASE AND BECOME CHOPPIER WITH THE SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...VAUGHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page