447
FXHW60 PHFO 131858
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
858 AM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL KONA STORM WILL NEAR THE STATE PRODUCING PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF THREATS RANGING FROM SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
AND SNOW AND ICE OVER THE HIGHEST BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HIGHEST THREATS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN ALONG NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND
MOUNTAINS. UNSETTLED WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
KONA STORM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY, AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL START TO EASE ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TRADE
WINDS TO RETURN SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN REACHING MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 AM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OAHU
AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
A POWERFUL KONA STORM REMAINS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE BIG PICTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX. SATELLITE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FOR
SHOWER BANDS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ARE TRENDING COLDER AND APPEAR MORE STRONGLY ORGANIZED. COOLING
CLOUD TOPS MEANS STRONGER STORMS REACHING HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER THREATS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN AS EACH OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DIG INTO THE ISLANDS, PRODUCING SMALLER
SCALE (MESOSCALE) CONVECTIVE HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
BANDING FEATURES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL FALL ALONG
THESE DEVELOPING SMALL SCALE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THESE BANDS ARE CAPABLE OF
REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND PULLING DOWN STRONG
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND, PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT TIMES.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
BOTH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS THAT MORE EASILY LEAD TO GROUND
RUNOFF AND FLOODING FROM EVEN MORE MODERATE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL
RATES. THE HIGHEST FLOOD THREATS ACROSS THE STATE WILL FAVOR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS. THESE ARE TYPICALLY
THE DRIER SIDES OF THE ISLANDS, LESS ACCUSTOMED TO HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. DRIVING UNDER THESE HEAVY SHOWER BANDS WILL BECOME
CHALLENGING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. CURRENT WEATHER
TRENDS IN THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY, THESE THREATS TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY WILL DEVELOP SWIFTLY AND CAN AFFECT ANY LOCATION IN
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL IF
POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE KONA STORM BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND THE THREAT LEVEL ACROSS THE
STATE DIMINISHES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS INTO SATURDAY, THIS FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME VASTLY MORE SEVERE TODAY, AS STRONGER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG ISLAND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES, FAVORING NORTHERN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF STEEP
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND TREES
UNACCUSTOMED TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL AND LIKELY
CAUSE BLOCKED ROADWAYS AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. THESE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SPEED UP INTO THE 50 TO 70 MPH
RANGE AROUND THE 5,000 TO 10,000 FOOT LEVEL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CONVERGE AT THE LOWER LEVELS, LIFTING THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTIVE HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM BANDS.
AS THESE CLOUDS REACH HIGHER AND HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THEY WILL REACH UP AND CONVECTIVELY PULL DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE, YIELDING WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH RANGE IN
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS. THIS MEANS EVEN OUTSIDE OF
TERRAIN ENHANCING WIND GUSTS ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER ISLANDS OR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, BELOW SUMMIT LEVEL, OF THE BIG
ISLAND. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE
STRONGER DAMAGING WIND THREATS FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY, WIND SHEAR AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING
INGREDIENTS ARE ALL COMING INTO FOCUS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL WE SEE
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
PULLING THE TRIGGER ON THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITH A SHORT
LEAD TIME MEASURED IN HOURS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ARE PRODUCING
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND PERIODS OF ICING AT TIMES. A COMBINATION OF
ICE, SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY
TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS ABOVE THE 12,000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
WINTER WEATHER THREAT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
THE MAUNA KEA ACCESS ROAD TO THE SUMMIT REMAINS CLOSED TO THE
PUBLIC.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS LEADING TO ANOTHER UPWARD PULSE IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
THREATEN THE ISLANDS AND BECOME MORE OF A FLOODING THREAT AS
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE LARGE KONA STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD, SLOWLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
MEANS WET WEATHER CONTINUES, HOWEVER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BACK INTO POSITION JUST NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE ISLANDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MORE TYPICAL BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS, REACHING MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 839 AM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCAL LIFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO AND OVER 35 KT
ARE FORECAST.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL ISLANDS DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BETWEEN FL240 AND FL360. TANGO HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS. BOTH OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
AIRMET ZULU IS ALSO IN EFFECT, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS
PRESENT ICING CONCERNS BETWEEN 120 AND FL260. THIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS, STEEP AND FAST BUILDING SEAS, AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE WATERS AS
THIS STRONG KONA STORM EVENT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG TO GALE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALL WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO NEAR MAUI COUNTY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
NEAR GALE- FORCE, SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS
DURING THAT TIME. THESE STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH AS THE STORM GAINS INCREASING
DISTANCE FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
A SMALL, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BRING SMALL TO MODERATE SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAUAI WILL BLOCK SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
FROM REACHING OAHU AND MAUI, BUT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND PEAK
SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING.
ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES DUE
TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY THIS MORNING CAUSING SOUTH SHORE SURF TO BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND, LIKELY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ONCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SMALL TO MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE LOW EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ZEALAND WILL ARRIVE ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES AND BUILD INTO
MIDWEEK. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI EAST-KAUAI
MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-NIIHAU.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST
HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI
MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-
KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI
SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST
HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-
OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-KOHALA-KONA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI
CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...ALMANZA
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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