095
FXHW60 PHFO 140714 AAA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
914 PM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL KONA STORM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
THREATS RANGING FROM SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS,
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW AND ICE OVER THE HIGHEST
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL HOLD
THROUGH SATURDAY AND PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HIGHEST
THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN ALONG NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ISLAND MOUNTAINS. UNSETTLED WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS KONA STORM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY, AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL START TO EASE ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LOOKING INTO THE SATELLITE PICTURE THIS EVENING WE SEE THE
POWERFUL KONA STORM NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WITH ROTATING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LARGE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN THIS UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN AND MAY
ANCHOR OR TRAIN OVER ISLAND MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES BASED ON
AVAILABLE RADAR AND WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES INDICATE THESE HEAVY
RAIN BANDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MOST ISLANDS THIS EVENING WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING STATEWIDE.
STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE HIGH WIND WARNING
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. THESE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE STATE, AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE BIG
ISLAND.
PLEASE POSTPONE TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY DUE
TO THE ONGOING STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORM, AND
FLOODING IMPACTS FROM THIS STRONG KONA STORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 PM HST FRI MAR 13 2026
A POWERFUL KONA STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ROUGHLY
800 SM NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ISLAND CHAIN WITH KAUAI ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD BAND.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
STATE WITH 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL REACHING 5 TO 8 INCHES FOR SOME
OF THE WETTER LOCATIONS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI COUNTY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHEN TO WARNING LEVELS TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS UP
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH FOR THESE ISLANDS. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE SUMMITS HALEAKALA AND THE BIG
ISLAND THUS A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
STATE. A WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SHOWING THE KONA LOW DEEPENING TO OUR
NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THIS EVENT PEAKS INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. THUS A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT KAUAI AND OAHU INTO SATURDAY BUT THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE COMING DOWN FOR KAUAI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND FOR OAHU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL
CONTINUE FOR KAUAI THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OAHU THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS THAT MORE
EASILY LEAD TO GROUND RUNOFF AND FLOODING FROM EVEN MORE MODERATE
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL RATES. THE HIGHEST FLOOD THREATS ACROSS THE
STATE WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SLOPES. THESE ARE TYPICALLY
THE DRIER SIDES OF THE ISLANDS, LESS ACCUSTOMED TO HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. DRIVING UNDER THESE HEAVY SHOWER BANDS WILL BECOME
CHALLENGING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. CURRENT WEATHER
TRENDS IN THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY, THESE THREATS TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY WILL DEVELOP SWIFTLY AND CAN AFFECT ANY LOCATION IN
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL IF
POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE KONA STORM BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND THE THREAT LEVEL ACROSS THE
STATE DIMINISHES.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OVER THE STATE LEADING TO ANOTHER UPWARD PULSE IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY OVER MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND WHERE THE MAIN RAINBAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE LARGE KONA STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD, SLOWLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
MEANS WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER AND NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS VARIOUS OUTCOMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BACK
INTO POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS EARLIER AS
WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE
HIGH BUILDING IN THURSDAY WITH TRADES BRINGING MORE TYPICAL BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCAL LIFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO
AND OVER 35 KT ARE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU,
BEFORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL ISLANDS DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION, AND OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND LANAI FOR IFR. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BETWEEN 130 AND FL380. AND FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. BOTH OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AIRMET ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS
PRESENT ICING CONCERNS BETWEEN FL120 AND FL260. THIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING SHOWED GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS
NEAR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THIS MORNING, AND RADAR SIGNATURES
SUPPORTED GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST BANDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG
KONA STORM IMPACTING THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS, STEEP AND FAST
BUILDING SEAS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GALE WARNING NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MAUI
COUNTY FOLLOWING THE MORNING ASCAT PASS. THE GALE WARNING WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WATERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND STARTING TONIGHT.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU TOMORROW, BUT
CONTINUE NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. THESE GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE AND
ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND AS SUCH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES. THE WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH AS THE STORM GAINS INCREASING DISTANCE FAR TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS.
A SMALL, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BRING SMALL TO MODERATE SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAUAI WILL BLOCK SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
FROM REACHING OAHU AND MAUI, BUT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OAHU.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU
LEEWARD WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BOHLIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...WALSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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