248
FXHW60 PHFO 142232 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1232 PM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL KONA STORM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
THREATS RANGING FROM SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS,
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW AND ICE OVER THE HIGHEST
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TODAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HIGHEST THREATS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN ALONG NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
UNSETTLED WET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH DECREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TRENDS FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KONA STORM BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS WILL DECREASE AS SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS START TO EASE
ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR KAUAI AND OAHU HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WATERS HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDED TRENDS
OF A NARROW RAINBAND SETTING UP BETWEEN OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THIS RAINBAND COULD BRING
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS PRIMARILY FOR MAUI COUNTY AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND STALLS SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
LOOKING INTO THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WE
CONTINUE TO SEE A STRONG KONA STORM LOCKED INTO POSITION NORTHWEST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEVERAL HIGHER TOPPED CLOUD BANDS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE ISLANDS IN MAUI COUNTY AND
OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SATELLITE PICTURE MATCHES WELL WITH
LATEST LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY, INDICATING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
AT A RATE OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL TRIGGER PULSES OF
HEAVIER SMALLER SCALE (MESOSCALE) SHOWER BANDS POTENTIALLY TRAINING
OVER THE ISLANDS. THESE PULSES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
EACH ISLAND DIFFERENTLY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PULSE DOWN WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES, AND THEN PULSE
BACK UP AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE FORECASTING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE HEAVY RAIN SHOWER BANDS, WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER ANY
LOCATION ON AN HOUR BY HOUR BASIS. OVERALL WE REMAIN IN A VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TO COVER THE THREATS FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWER BANDS WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED
FROM THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE
STATE. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY
FAVORING NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF ISLAND TERRAIN AND A HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ALSO
CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12,000 FEET ELEVATION.
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THE KONA STORM BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, AND HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BUILDING IN NORTH OF
THE REGION, RATHER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE HAWAIIAN ISLAND WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS MEANS VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 419 AM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
FOCUS ON THE EASTERN ISLANDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCAL LIFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO AND OVER 35 KT ARE
FORECAST.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL ISLANDS DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION, AND OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND LANAI FOR IFR. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BETWEEN 130 AND FL380. AND FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. BOTH OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AIRMET ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS
PRESENT ICING CONCERNS BETWEEN FL120 AND FL260. THIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 924 AM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OAHU TO
THE BIG ISLAND AS A STRONG KONA STORM CONTINUES IMPACTING THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE (FOR THE WATERS NEAR KAUAI), A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
GREATER THAN 10 FEET. GUSTY WINDS, STEEP AND FAST SEAS, AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. BASED ON
THIS, THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME WITH THIS
MORNING'S UPDATES. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS WEEKEND, THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTH.
THESE GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES UNTIL
6 PM. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SOUTH SHORE SURF
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATES. THE WINDS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH AS THE STORM
GAINS INCREASING DISTANCE FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
A SMALL, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BRING SMALL TO MODERATE SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN NORTH SHORE SURF IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH
SWELL WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING. ANOTHER
SMALL NORTH SWELL COULD ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI EAST-KAUAI
MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-NIIHAU.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST
HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU
WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN- HONOLULU
METRO-KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOHALA-KONA- LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI WEST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA- SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-
EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-
KOHALA-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD
WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...ALMANZA
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...THOMAS
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