487
FXHW60 PHFO 150218
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
418 PM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL KONA STORM REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE PRODUCING
PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF THREATS RANGING FROM
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW AND ICE OVER THE HIGHEST BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS. STRONG AND DAMAGING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL HOLD
INTO SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
HIGHEST THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ALONG NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THE KONA STORM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, PERIODS UNSETTLED WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG KONA LOW ROUGHLY 950 SM NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN A BROAD BAND CLOUDS CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO THE
STATE IS GENERATING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SEVERE GUSTS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE EASED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THUS A HIGH WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR IS FILTERING IN OVER KAUAI WHERE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN FOR KAUAI THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
KAUAI. A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OAHU IS MERGING WITHIN A BROADER BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN CENTER OVER MAUI COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AND AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT DUE TO ONE LAST PUSH
OF UPPER SUPPORT. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, ELEVATED STREAMS
THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR OAHU THROUGH EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE KONA LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL TREND DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS AND SHOWERS.
VERY STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
TO LIGHT TO BREEZY LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY DUE TO
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITHIN A LIGHT WIND
PATTERN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION SHALLOW BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED THE
EXITING KONA LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE GENERATING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WET WEATHER.
AVIATION
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE TODAY,
PROVIDING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.
KAUAI REMAINS VFR AS SHOWERS HAVE NOT IMPACTED THE ISLAND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIMARILY IMPACTING ISLANDS FROM
MOLOKAI TO BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
IMPACTING OAHU THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE S-SW WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND CAN STILL SEE
WINDS 30 KT OR GREATER THROUGH TOMORROW.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO BIG ISLAND. OAHU WILL LIKELY
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AS
SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS FOR ISLANDS
FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 130 AND FL300. AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, AND FOR
TURBULENCE DOWNWIND N THROUGH E OF TERRAIN STATEWIDE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
AIRMET ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS
PRESENT ICING CONCERNS BETWEEN 130 AND FL260. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG KONA STORM CONTINUES IMPACTING THE
REGION. THEREFORE, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
WATERS THROUGH 6 PM HST SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE (FOR THE WATERS NEAR
KAUAI AND OAHU), A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET. GUSTY WINDS, STEEP
AND FAST SEAS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH LATER ON SUNDAY, THE GALE WARNING WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE AND ROUGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS
DECLINED A BIT TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE WHERE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE, THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT SHIFT WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM GAINS INCREASING DISTANCE
FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT BUMP IN SOUTH SHORE SURF
TUESDAY.
A SMALL, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BRING SMALL TO MODERATE SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN NORTH
SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECLINING. ANOTHER SMALL NORTH SWELL COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-
KAUAI MOUNTAINS-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST
HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-KOOLAU WINDWARD-KOOLAU
LEEWARD.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OAHU-
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-
LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND
NORTH.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
KONA-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-MOLOKAI-LANAI
WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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