267
FXHW60 PHFO 150643
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL KONA STORM REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE PRODUCING PERIODS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF THREATS RANGING FROM
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
AND SNOW AND ICE OVER THE HIGHEST BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. PARTICULARLY
VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL HOLD INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE HIGHEST THREATS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ALONG NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF ISLAND
MOUNTAINS. THIS KONA STORM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY TO
MONDAY, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE HAWAII
REGION. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER IN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 833 PM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
PRIMARY UPDATE TO THIS EVENING'S FORECAST IS TO CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU. SHOWERS HAVE SINCE MOVED EAST OUT OF OAHU
AND ALL STREAMS AND RESERVOIRS ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH
TONIGHT'S FOCUS LEANING STRONGLY ON MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND, ESPECIALLY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST
RAINBANDS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
A STRONG KONA LOW ROUGHLY 950 SM NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN A BROAD BAND CLOUDS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO THE STATE IS GENERATING STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE GUSTS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. WINDS HAVE EASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THUS A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN OVER KAUAI WHERE MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR KAUAI THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI. A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OAHU IS
MERGING WITHIN A BROADER BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN CENTER OVER
MAUI COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AND AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT DUE TO ONE LAST PUSH OF UPPER SUPPORT. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS, ELEVATED STREAMS THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR OAHU THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
MORNING MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE KONA LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL TREND DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS AND SHOWERS.
VERY STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
TO LIGHT TO BREEZY LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY DUE TO
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITHIN A LIGHT WIND
PATTERN. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION SHALLOW BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED THE
EXITING KONA LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE GENERATING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WET WEATHER.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 833 PM HST SAT MAR 14 2026
LOW CIGS AND SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECT TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. A FEW TSTMS ARE ONGOING OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL. AS FAR AS THE WINDS, THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY IN
SOME SPOTS. OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE S-SW 30KTS OR
GREATER WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FROM OAHU TO THE BIG
ISLAND. IT IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR IFR CONDS FOR LANAI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD MID-UPPER LEVEL TURB
BETWEEN 130 AND FL330. IT IS IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, AS WELL AS FOR TURB DOWNWIND N
THRU E OF TERRAIN STATEWIDE. CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
AIRMET ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS
PRESENT ICING CONCERNS BETWEEN 130 AND FL260. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG KONA STORM CONTINUES IMPACTING THE
REGION. THEREFORE, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
WATERS THROUGH 6 PM HST SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE (FOR THE WATERS NEAR
KAUAI AND OAHU), A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET. GUSTY WINDS, STEEP
AND FAST SEAS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH LATER ON SUNDAY, THE GALE WARNING WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE AND ROUGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS
DECLINED A BIT TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE WHERE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE, THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT SHIFT WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM GAINS INCREASING DISTANCE
FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT BUMP IN SOUTH SHORE SURF
TUESDAY.
A SMALL, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BRING SMALL TO MODERATE SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN NORTH
SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECLINING. ANOTHER SMALL NORTH SWELL COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST
HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU
WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE
MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-
EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KAHOOLAWE-KIPAHULU-
KOHALA-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD
WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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