465
FXHW60 PHFO 010155
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM WITH JUST A FEW WINDWARD AND
MAUKA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STATIONARY UPPER LOW PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AT THE
SURFACE, A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII
DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE BELOW AVERAGE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
RUNNING AROUND 0.9 INCHES, SO WHILE SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE
UPPER LOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL BRING A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS
TONIGHT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LOOKING AHEAD, TRADES WILL BEGIN TO EASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF HAWAII. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW TO MODERATE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL SMALL BATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BY THE TRADES.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN, SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN SOUTH, WHILE A
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND DRAGS TROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER THE
ISLANDS. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG-RANGE GFS
AND ECMWF FOR THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB BLW 080 DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN.
MARINE
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HAWAII WILL ELONGATE AND SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, CAUSING TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THAT POINT, A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
MEANS THAT STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
FAVORED CHANNELS ONLY. WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND.
MODERATE NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORE SURF CONTINUES TO BE GENERATED BY
A SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST (020 DEGREE) SWELL WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT VEERS NORTHEAST.
SHORES BETTER EXPOSED TO THIS NNE SWELL WILL EXPERIENCE DECENT
WIND WAVE CHOP GENERATED BY SOLID MODERATE TRADES.
SURF ALONG WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY WRAP AROUND
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
KIND THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELLS ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND TO BRING A SMALL BUMP IN
SURF FOR WEST-FACING SHORES. ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES, EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPULSES TO SUSTAIN SMALL SURF THROUGH THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...QUESADA
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