110
FXHW60 PHFO 011309
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
309 AM HST WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM WITH JUST A FEW WINDWARD AND
MAUKA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT A FRONT DEVELOPING, WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. AS THESE FEATURES MEANDER
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, TRADES AT THE LOCAL LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO EASE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO BE SPARSE, WITH
MODEL DEPICTED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES PORTRAYING VALUES TWO
TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS REMAINS THE CASE DUE TO A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WHICH HAS MORE OR LESS ENGULFED THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM THE LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW XX
AND XX INCHES, RESPECTIVELY, SO ANY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY STILL BRING A FEW
WINDWARD SHOWERS. EVEN THEN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE STATE.
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL
MEANDER EASTWARD TOWARD CONUS AS IT WEAKENS, OPENING THE DOORS TO
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HAWAII. THE TROUGH
MAY FUNNEL SOME SMALL BATCHES OF MOISTURE INTO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS BY WAY OF THE TRADES, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE CONTENT. FURTHERMORE, WITH THE
HIGH WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME, TRADES WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
WITHIN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST, MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO HINT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY,
THEN SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE, RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
BAND PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONG-RANGE GFS AND ECMWF WITHIN THIS SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SENSE OF TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED AND REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY ENE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED
ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS
WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
NO AIRMET'S ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, AIRMET TANGO FOR
MID - UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF
TURBULENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR TOO LONG, AND WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HAWAII WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEK, CAUSING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND.
MODERATE NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORE SURF CONTINUES TO BE GENERATED BY
A SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST (020 DEGREE) SWELL WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS IT VEERS NORTHEAST. SHORES BETTER
EXPOSED TO THIS NNE SWELL WILL EXPERIENCE DECENT WIND WAVE CHOP
GENERATED BY SOLID MODERATE TRADES.
SURF ALONG WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY WRAP AROUND
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
KIND THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELLS ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND TO BRING A SMALL BUMP IN
SURF FOR WEST-FACING SHORES. ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES, EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPULSES TO SUSTAIN SMALL SURF THROUGH THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...WALSH
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