360
FXHW60 PHFO 020611
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
811 PM HST WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER BREEZY TRADES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY WINDWARD ZONES AND MAUKA SLOPES. LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE MID NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL PULL UP A MORE MOSITURE-RICH SOUTHERN AIR MASS AND LIKELY BE
THE IMPETUS TO HIGHER STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 PM HST WED APR 1 2026
IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, CAUGHT IN THE TRADE FLOW, AND
BANKING UP AGAINST WINDWARD AND MAUKA PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PICKED UP ON RADAR HAVE ONLY AMOUNTED TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, AS REPORTED BY A HANDFUL OF STATIONS,
BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY. FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AND INCREASED FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
OAHU AND KAUAI WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
APPEARS TO BE FAVORING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM HST WED APR 1 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HERE IN THE ISLANDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG MANY COASTAL AREAS AND SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS AS
CUMULUS BUILD UP ALONG WARMED MAUKA SLOPES. MORNING ASCAT PASSES
CLIPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE VERIFIED THAT
TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS ARE FADING A TOUCH. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS SUCH TRADE EXPOSED AREAS AS KAENA POINT IN
NORTHWEST OAHU, KALAUPAPA ON MOLOKAI AND BIG ISLAND'S NORTH
KOHALA DISTRICT ARE A CLUE THAT WINDS HAVE STAYED UP THROUGH THE
ISLAND CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND.
AFTERNOON NEAR COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING
ARE MAINTAINING THESE AMPED UP CHANNEL WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY,
STRONGEST OVER MA'ALAEA BAY AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OVERALL TRADES WILL FADE A BIT FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVING ONTO THE U.S. MAINLAND'S WEST COAST.
UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE WEST WILL GUARANTEE A FEW MORE OF
THESE PLEASANT DAYS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ALOHA STATE. PARTIALLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WITH UPPER 50 TO MIDDLE
60 F DEW POINTS, WILL BE THE RULE. AFTERNOONS WILL WARM INTO THE
AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, INTO THE
60S ABOVE 2-3 KFT. TONIGHT'S FULL MOON WILL CLEARLY BE SEEN IN
FREQUENT LUNAR PEEKS BETWEEN THE PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. EVENING
BREEZY COASTAL TRADES OVER WINDWARD AREAS WHILE LAND BREEZES TAKE
HOLD WITHIN WIND-SHELTERED INTERIORS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S. LOCAL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
MOISTENED LOWER 6-7 KFT BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED BY BONE DRY MID TO
UPPER LAYER AIR. THIS RESIDENT STABLE, DRY AIR MASS WILL GUARANTEE
ANY SHORT-LIVED PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. QUICK PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG EASTERN-FACING UPSLOPE
MAUKA AND WITHIN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE OCCASIONAL OFFSHORE
SHOWER PASSING ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR HAWAII WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A DEEPENING TROUGH WEST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LEAVE A WAKE FOR WHICH A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE NEXT
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL
TRAVEL INTO THIS TROUGH, FURTHER DEEPENING IT AS ITS AXIS NEARS
THE NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL VEER OUR REGIONAL WINDS MORE
SOUTH OF EAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY OVER MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AND OVER THE STATE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT PROVIDED BY A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED VICINITY TROUGH, ALONG WITH SPLIT JET DIFFULENCE,
WITHIN AN NEAR MAXED OUT PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS (FOR EARLY
APRIL) TO INITIATE STATEWIDE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME A WEEK OUT, THE MAIN HAZARD IS FORECAST TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THAT, IF IT OCCURS, COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. IN
PLACING THIS NEXT WEATHER EVENT IN PERSPECTIVE IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE
'WORSE CASE SCENARIO' (90TH PERCENTILE PROBABILITY) OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY'S AVERAGE STORM TOTAL QPF (QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST) IS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE BIG QUESTION MARK GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS MID TO
LATE WEEK RAIN.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 752 PM HST WED APR 1 2026
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY ENE TRADES PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. EMBEDDED ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS CONTINUE, PREDOMINATELY
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 752 PM HST WED APR 1 2026
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS
INTO THE MODERATE RANGE. WINDS COULD THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT MID PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL (7 FT, 9-11 SECONDS AT 040
DEGREES) WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOMORROW AS THE NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. AS A RESULT, EAST SHORE SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL STILL
RETAIN A LITTLE SIZE AND CHOP DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES.
THE NEXT SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SMALL BUMP IN SURF
FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES,
EXPECT SMALL REINFORCEMENTS TO SUSTAIN SMALL SURF THROUGH THE
WEEK UNTIL A SLIGHTLY LARGER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FILLS IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...TSAMOUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page