342
FXHW60 PHFO 030146
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
THE USUAL SHOWERS, MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THINGS START TO
CHANGE MONDAY AS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY,
THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS LASTING SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST THU APR 2 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ISOLATED MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE KONA DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS
WERE TYPICAL TRADES, OUT OF THE NE THROUGH ESE AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
IN THE SHORT TERM, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOLID TRADE INVERSION SET
UP AROUND 5500-6500 FEET MSL. THIS, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AT LOW LEVELS, WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FIRST OF A POTENTIAL SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL MOVE BY NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL SHIFT LOW
LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO SE AND START TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE THE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA, AND WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE
IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SPREAD ON HOW STRONG THIS NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE AND HOW MUCH RAIN MAY BE HEADED OUR WAY.
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS THERE, AND
THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE, AS ALWAYS, AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. PLEASE KEEP
YOURSELF UPDATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST THU APR 2 2026
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ON
WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA AREAS. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWER. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AN AIRMET IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE
BETWEEN FL280 AND FL380. TURBULENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN
ISOLATED AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST THU APR 2 2026
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS
INTO THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WINDIER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THE SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. AS
A RESULT, SURF ALONG NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES SURF WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL STILL RETAIN
A LITTLE SIZE AND CHOP DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES. A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
MID-NEXT WEEK.
NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST (340 DEGREE)
SWELL LATE SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE MEDIUM-PERIOD WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FILLS IN BY MID-
WEEK. ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES, EXPECT SMALL REINFORCEMENTS TO
PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL A SLIGHTLY
LARGER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FILLS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
VEERING LOCAL WINDS MAY LEAD TO INCREASINGLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...QUESADA
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