319
FXHW60 PHFO 241345
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST FRI APR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
HELP TO LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE LATEST RUN OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS.
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND THAN NEAR KAUAI. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
FORMING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW INTO TOMORROW WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
IN PLACE.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK. BY MID
WEEK, A NEW FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE COULD ONCE AGAIN
DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
AVIATION
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH SHOWERS.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, AND NONE ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN WEST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TRAVEL
EAST, PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT ENOUGH CENTRAL
PACIFIC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND MAGNITUDES THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.
A PAIR OF NORTHERN GALE LOWS WILL SEND A SERIES OF SMALL SIZE
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS (320-330 DEGREE) INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
A DEEPENING WEEKEND STORM LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
MAY SEND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL (30
DEGREES) WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THIS EVENING. A SMALL FETCH OF
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK LOW NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE COULD PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED REINFORCING SHORT PERIOD
SWELL INTO THE WATER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, BELOW
AVERAGE SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN EXPOSURES INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG TRADE WIND ACTIVITY
OVER OR UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SMALL BACKGROUND ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND FADE OUT THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL SOUTHWEST BUMP
FROM THE TASMAN SEA THAT PASSED ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA'S 51209
BUOY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...BLOOD
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