660
FXHW60 PHFO 250134
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
334 PM HST FRI APR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADES WILL RULE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
KONA SHOWERS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOME WINDWARD AREAS AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WINDWARD AND MAUKA,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEEWARD. WINDS WERE MODERATE, AVERAGING
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE USUAL SPOTS THAT GET
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING TRADES (SUCH AS KUAOKALA, THE
AIRPORT ON MOLOKAI, LAHAINA, AND IN THE MOUNTAINS).
A BASIC TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE BEGINNING IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP US
WITH LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
OF NOTE, THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, WE WOULD SEE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM COLDER AIR ALOFT.
AVIATION
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN WINDWARD AREAS DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, AND NONE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN WEST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH FAR NORTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL TRAVEL EAST, PASS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.
A PAIR OF NORTHERN GALE LOWS WILL SEND A SERIES OF SMALL SIZE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS (320-330 DEGREE) INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. A
DEEPENING WEEKEND STORM LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
MAY SEND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL (30
DEGREES) WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THIS EVENING. A SMALL FETCH OF
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE COULD PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED, SHORT PERIOD REINFORCING
SWELL INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE,
AVERAGE SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN EXPOSURES INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY STRONG TRADE WIND ACTIVITY OVER AND
UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SMALL BACKGROUND ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUES TO LINGER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL FADE OUT THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL
SOUTHWEST BUMP FROM THE TASMAN SEA THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SAMOA 51209 BUOY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW.
NO SIGNIFICANT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...WALSH
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