003
FXHW60 PHFO 270153
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
353 PM HST SUN APR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE NNE. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY. TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON, RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WERE
OVER THE KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND. OTHER MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWERS WERE OVER WINDWARD MAUI.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CARRY A SERIES
OF TROUGHS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE HERE IN HAWAII.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SMALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSED LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK ENE AWAY FROM THE STATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR WNW (CENTERED AROUND 25 DEG N).
THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRADES FROM
CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE, BUT IT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY ALOFT, AND THEREFORE WE MAY SEE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA, AND MORE NUMEROUS AT NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. AFTERNOON KONA
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER THE PEAKS OF THE BIG ISLAND, WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. FINALLY, FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TRADES WILL BECOME A STRONGER.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOW CIGS AND
SHRA POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST. GUIDANCE INDICATES TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS
SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS LOOK TO
STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID-WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE, WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING ADDITIONAL COASTAL
WATERS.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EASE
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE OFFSHORE BUOY 51001
(TO THE NORTHWEST) SHOWS DECREASING MEDIUM-PERIOD SWELL ENERGY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SWELL GENERATED BY A BROAD LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS REACHES HAWAII. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, A STORM-
FORCE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF JAPAN ON MONDAY LOOKS TO DIRECT A
LONGER-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARD THE ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH SURF HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
AS A SOUTHWEST SWELL PEAKS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PULSE MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND FROM ACTIVITY WITHIN
OUR SWELL WINDOW EAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL AND
CHOPPY, THOUGH A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS TOMORROW
COULD LEAD TO A SMALL BUMP IN SURF.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...QUESADA
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