953
FXHW60 PHFO 281948
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
948 AM HST TUE APR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH OF THE STATE TO THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW AND BECOME STATIONARY
AROUND 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING AWAY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE STATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INVERSIONS AROUND
10-11 KFT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT SOME BUILD UP OF LEEWARD CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY BIG ISLAND. SOME INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THE COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BIG ISLAND. SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY CARRY
IN ON THE TRADE WINDS IMPACTING OTHER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP INVERSION AND
CLOUD HEIGHTS ELEVATED, ALLOWING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN ISLAND WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WET TRADE
WIND PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND ISOLATED MVFR FOCUS WINDWARD AND MAUKA DURING THIS TIME.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LEE TURB MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A WEAK TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CORRESPOND TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOW THAT THE NEWLY ARRIVING NORTHWEST SWELL IS
BELOW 1 FT AS OF THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, SURF ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TODAY BEFORE A BUMP IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PEAK OF THE SWELL CONTINUES TO
APPROACH. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A STORM-FORCE LOW EAST OF JAPAN WILL
SEND A MODERATE, LONGER- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARD THE
ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SURF HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PULSE MAY ARRIVE BY THIS WEEKEND FROM RECENT
ACTIVITY WITHIN OUR SWELL WINDOW EAST OF NEW ZEALAND, PROVIDING A
SMALL INCREASE IN SURF.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL AND
CHOPPY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RISE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE/DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...QUESADA
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