025
FXHW60 PHFO 110112
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
312 PM HST SUN MAY 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
STATE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED WEST OF KAUAI. TRADE
WINDS WILL NOW BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, MOST FREQUENTLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER FOR MOST FOLKS THAN
THIS PAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT AREAS OF SHOWERS, SOME BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY, HAS MOVED JUST WEST OF KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STATE WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE KONA REGION ON BIG ISLAND, WITH
ISOLATED WINDWARD SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS, SATELLITE SHOWED THIN HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
AT UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35 DEG N, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WON'T BE ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE,
TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WE WILL
EXPERIENCE A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA, AND MOST FREQUENT AT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO BREEZY, STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNING
FOR BOATERS, BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORIES ON
LAND.
AVIATION
STABLE AND MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TRADES INCREASING A BIT MORE ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS ESPECIALLY
OVER KAUAI AND OTHER WINDWARD AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT AREA
TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER KAUAI N THROUGH E
SECTIONS DUE TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURB DUE TO THE
BREEZY TRADES.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEK IN MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL MAINTAINS SMALL SURF ALONG
N AND W SHORES TODAY. A NEW SLIGHTLY LARGER N SWELL ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT PEAKING DURING MONDAY. ANOTHER SMALL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAKS EARLY THURSDAY.
SMALL LONG PERIOD S SWELL HAS FADED THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER, TWO
ADDITIONAL SMALL LONG PERIOD S SWELLS ARRIVE MONDAY AND THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG E SHORES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH
INCREASING SURF PEAKING BY WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...JVC
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