364
FXHW60 PHFO 111306
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
306 AM HST MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOWERS
SHOULD FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, MOST FREQUENTLY AT NIGHT
AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL, THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRIER FOR MOST FOLKS THAN THIS PAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION SATELLITE SHOWS THIN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES.
AT UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35 DEG N, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT
WON'T BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE.
WE WILL EXPERIENCE A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS. WINDS LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO BREEZY, STRONG ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNING FOR BOATERS, BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ON LAND.
AVIATION
STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH TRADES
INCREASING A BIT MORE TO BREEZY LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN WITH THE TRADE
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND WINDWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT IN THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING PERIODS, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI DUE TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND
OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION, AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE ISLANDS
WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEK IN MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL MAINTAINS SMALL SURF ALONG
N AND W SHORES TODAY. ANOTHER SMALL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAKS EARLY THURSDAY.
TWO ADDITIONAL SMALL LONG PERIOD S SWELLS ARRIVE TODAY AND ON
THURSDAY KEEPING SURF HEIGHTS ALONG S FACING SHORES ABOVE FLAT
LEVELS. SURF ALONG E SHORES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR
TERM, WITH INCREASING SURF PEAKING BY WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS
STRENGTHEN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...BOHLIN
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