643
FXHW60 PHFO 120124
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
324 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, MOST FREQUENTLY AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
TRADE WIND SHOWER COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS NEAR KAUAI, ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THIS END OF THE STATE.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE BY
MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE, BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME TIME,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.5 TO ALMOST 2
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE, THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY ONLY AMOUNT TO AN UPTICK IN TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN WITH THE
TRADE WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET ALONG NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
WINDWARD SIDES ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, BUT VFR WILL BE PREVAILING
CONDITION.
AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND
OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEK IN MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TOMORROW.
SMALL SHORT PERIOD NW SWELL HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD BRING ELEVATED SURF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR
FAVORED EXPOSURES. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PEAKS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD S SWELL HAS LIKEWISE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE WITH
LONG PERIOD ENERGY JUST BARELY REGISTERING ON THE BARBER'S POINT
PACIOOS BUOY. S SWELL ENERGY REMAINS AT BACKGROUND LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL BUILDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF ALONG E
FACING SHORES CONTINUES UNTIL TRADES WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...JVC
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