360
FXHW60 PHFO 120625
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
825 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, MOST FREQUENTLY AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE WIND SHOWER
COVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
THIS EVENING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF KAUAI EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW APPROACHING THE GARDEN ISLE. A FEW TWEAKS TO SHOWER CHANCES
HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY TO
INCREASE POPS, QPF, AND SKY COVER ON AND NEAR KAUAI TO TREND TOWARDS
THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS NEAR KAUAI, ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THIS END OF THE STATE.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE BY
MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE, BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. AT THE SAME TIME,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.5 TO ALMOST 2
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE, THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY ONLY AMOUNT TO AN UPTICK IN TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TRAPPED WITHIN TRADES WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON WINDWARD
EXPOSURES AND LIKELY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON KAUAI AND OAHU.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET ALONG NORTH THROUGH EAST AREAS OF KAUAI. BRIEF OVERNIGHT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS REMAINING ISLAND
WINDWARD LOCATIONS, BUT VFR WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVAILING
CATEGORY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND
OF ISLAND TERRAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST MON MAY 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEK IN MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TOMORROW.
SMALL SHORT PERIOD NW SWELL HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD BRING ELEVATED SURF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR
FAVORED EXPOSURES. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PEAKS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD S SWELL HAS LIKEWISE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE WITH
LONG PERIOD ENERGY JUST BARELY REGISTERING ON THE BARBER'S POINT
PACIOOS BUOY. S SWELL ENERGY REMAINS AT BACKGROUND LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL BUILDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF ALONG E
FACING SHORES CONTINUES UNTIL TRADES WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...VAUGHAN
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...JVC
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