107
FXHW60 PHFO 121350
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST TUE MAY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A
LINGERING WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR KAUAI VERSUS THE OTHER
ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, MOST FREQUENTLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE WIND SHOWER COVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF KAUAI EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE GARDEN ISLE AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE. THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING INTO PRIMARILY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE, BREEZY
TRADE WIND WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND), CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST DECREASES A BIT AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT THAT A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE (FOR EXAMPLE, THE ECMWF DEPICTS IT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS WHILE THE GFS PLACES IT VERY CLOSE TO, OR EVEN JUST WEST
OF, KAUAI). REGARDLESS, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TRADE WIND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAPPED WITHIN TRADES WILL
PRIMARILY FOCUS UPON WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND LIKELY HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON KAUAI AND BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET ALONG NORTH THROUGH EAST AREAS ON KAUAI. BRIEF
OVERNIGHT VFR CAT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
REMAINING ISLAND WINDWARD LOCATIONS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH LOWER LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND TERRAIN AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE
PASSING OVER THE STATE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES BLOWING THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE HAWAII REGION FROM THE NORTH FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER TRENDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS NEAR MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST (330 DEG) SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SMALL LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING ON THURSDAY, THEN SLOWLY FADING INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT SMALL SURF TO CONTINUE ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY.
THE SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLOW DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE PERIOD DROPPING BY 1
SECOND EACH DAY. THE NEXT SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY, KEEPING SURF HEIGHTS ELEVATED ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES CONTINUES
UNTIL TRADES WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...BOHLIN
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