583
FXHW60 PHFO 170138
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
338 PM HST SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WET TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED MONDAY, BECOMING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY. WET TRADES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY, AND A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON OAHU AND THE EASTERN SIDE
OF BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 3 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE TODAY. WINDS
HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH - GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST
WINDWARD AND WEST LEEWARD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE STATE YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. WE STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY, BUT IT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER NOW. RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BY TROUGHING EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE
TRADES BACK AND KEEP THEM IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY, WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THIS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR IS
BROUGHT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY INTO
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, TRADE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH SUNDAY, BUT INCREASE MONDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, HOWEVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH OAHU
IN PARTICULAR SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TRADES OVER THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 020
FOR KAUAI, OAHU, AND THE BIG ISLAND, WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE
TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SURF ALONG NORTH-
FACING SHORES FOLLOWING SUIT. A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST
REINFORCEMENT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH-
FACING SHORES BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SMALL REINFORCING SWELL ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG WEST-FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHWEST SWELL INFLUENCE GRADUALLY DECLINES, BUT A NEW, LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN.
A MIX OF SMALL, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
INCREASE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SMALL, MEDIUM TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL REINFORCEMENTS
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TIDES WILL PEAK AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0 FT MLLW THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
OVERWASH OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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