484
FXHW60 PHFO 170614
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
814 PM HST SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WET TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED MONDAY, BECOMING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY. WET TRADES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY, AND A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH MANAGED TO PRODUCE
ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INDUCE A SURFACE
TROUGH NEARBY. AS A RESULT, TRADES WERE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED OVER
MAUI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. AS TRADES BEGAN TO
BUILD BACK IN AROUND SUNSET, HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES OF OAHU, MAUI COUNTY, AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND, AND
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM HST SAT MAY 16 2026 RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON OAHU AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF BIG
ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH UP TO 3 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH - GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST WINDWARD AND
WEST LEEWARD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE STATE YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. WE STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY, BUT IT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER NOW. RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BY TROUGHING EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE
TRADES BACK AND KEEP THEM IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY, WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THIS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR IS
BROUGHT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY INTO
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, TRADE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 5 TO 15
MPH SUNDAY, BUT INCREASE MONDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER ISLAND MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH DECREASING TRENDS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
STATE.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE
ISLANDS OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, LANAI, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 PM HST SAT MAY 16 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE
TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SURF ALONG NORTH-
FACING SHORES FOLLOWING SUIT. A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST
REINFORCEMENT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH-
FACING SHORES BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SMALL REINFORCING SWELL ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG WEST-FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHWEST SWELL INFLUENCE GRADUALLY DECLINES, BUT A NEW, LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN.
A MIX OF SMALL, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
INCREASE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SMALL, MEDIUM TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL REINFORCEMENTS
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TIDES WILL PEAK AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0 FT MLLW THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
OVERWASH OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WROE
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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