723
FXHW60 PHFO 021302
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
302 AM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS CAUSING AND
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD TODAY. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUR MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IS MOVING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND INTO MAUI
COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OAHU AND KAUAI AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. MODERATE TRADES SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS, HOWEVER SOME LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE INTO LEEWARD
AREAS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, EAST TO WEST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RELENT BY THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
EASTERLY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD
KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT
OF ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
FL310 AND FL370. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURNED AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES,
PARTICULARLY THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS AND THE KAIWI
CHANNEL, MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT
PACKAGES AS THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS EXPANDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES IS TRENDING UPWARD THIS
MORNING AS A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN.
NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS REFLECT THIS TREND, WITH PEAK SPECTRAL
ENERGY CENTERED NEAR THE 18-SECOND BAND. OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS
FROM NDBC BUOY 51002 ALSO INDICATE INCREASING ENERGY WITHIN THESE
LONG-PERIOD BANDS, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED BUILDING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF WARNING
CRITERIA OF 15-FOOT FACES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SWELL PEAKS.
THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
COUPLE OF OUT-OF-SEASON NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE FROM BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE INCREASING SHORT-
PERIOD WIND WAVES. SURF SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM HST THURSDAY
FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD
WEST-KONA-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...GIBBS
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