452
FXHW60 PHFO 021929
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
929 AM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS CAUSING AND
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD TODAY. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUR MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH AND HEAVY ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS ON BIG ISLAND. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AN UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO
INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST DESCRIBE THE WEATHER WELL, AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IS MOVING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND INTO MAUI
COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OAHU AND KAUAI AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. MODERATE TRADES SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS, HOWEVER SOME LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE INTO LEEWARD
AREAS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, EAST TO WEST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RELENT BY THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD
KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT
OF ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
12,000 FEET ALL AREAS OF THE STATE.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURNED AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES,
PARTICULARLY THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS AND THE KAIWI
CHANNEL, MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT
PACKAGES AS THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS EXPANDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES IS TRENDING UPWARD THIS
MORNING AS A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN.
NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS REFLECT THIS TREND, WITH PEAK SPECTRAL
ENERGY CENTERED NEAR THE 18-SECOND BAND. OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS
FROM NDBC BUOY 51002 ALSO INDICATE INCREASING ENERGY WITHIN THESE
LONG-PERIOD BANDS, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED BUILDING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF WARNING
CRITERIA OF 15-FOOT FACES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SWELL PEAKS.
THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
COUPLE OF OUT-OF-SEASON NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE FROM BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE INCREASING SHORT-
PERIOD WIND WAVES. SURF SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURNED AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES,
PARTICULARLY THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS AND THE KAIWI
CHANNEL, MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT
PACKAGES AS THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS EXPANDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES IS TRENDING UPWARD THIS
MORNING AS A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN.
NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS REFLECT THIS TREND, WITH PEAK SPECTRAL
ENERGY CENTERED NEAR THE 18-SECOND BAND. OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS
FROM NDBC BUOY 51002 ALSO INDICATE INCREASING ENERGY WITHIN THESE
LONG-PERIOD BANDS, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED BUILDING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF WARNING
CRITERIA OF 15-FOOT FACES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SWELL PEAKS.
THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
COUPLE OF OUT-OF-SEASON NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE FROM BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE INCREASING SHORT-
PERIOD WIND WAVES. SURF SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
WAIANAE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...KINO
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