439
FXHW60 PHFO 030630
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE INTO
TONIGHT, BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING, SIMILAR TO WHAT WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND EXPERIENCED TODAY. A MORE TYPICAL (DRIER BUT NOT DRY)
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
THIS EVENING, SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, NO FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER OVER OAHU AND, TO A
LESSER DEGREE, KAUAI AS WELL. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED, THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
MOVES WEST OF THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER
BIG ISLAND, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MAUI COUNTY. WEST OF THERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED. TRADE WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH WERE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
A SIGNIFICANT MOIST PLUME WAS MOVING OVER THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO THE
EASTERN COASTAL REGION ON BIG ISLAND, WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES WEST THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT AND THEN EXITS WEDNESDAY EVENING, MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE WITHIN AREAS OF SHOWERS. THESE AREAS WILL MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY, SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THIS LATEST FORECAST.
THURSDAY, TRADES WILL INCREASE AND THEN REMAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A NEW STRONGER
CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH, ENSURING THE
TRADES CONTINUE. MODELS INDICATE SMALLER POCKETS OF MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS TRADE FLOW, BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THEIR
ARRIVAL UNTIL THEY ARE JUST A DAY OR TWO AWAY (DUE TO MODEL
ERROR). THEREFORE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOME
DAYS WETTER THAN OTHERS, AND OVERALL SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
FOR JUNE. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOW FROM THURSDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 825 PM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCE SHOWERS
INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING WEST TO KAUAI WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD
KAUAI AND ALL OF OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH RELIEF EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
8000 FEET ALL AREAS OF THE STATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM HST TUE JUN 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES, MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES AS THE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS EXPANDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO FILLS IN. OFFSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RISING
TREND CENTERED NEAR THE 17-SECOND BAND. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY JUST BELOW THE WARNING LEVEL
THRESHOLD OF 15 FEET FACES. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SURF MAY LINGER AROUND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF OUT-OF-SEASON
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY RISE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEK AS STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE INCREASING SHORT-
PERIOD WIND WAVES. SURF SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
WAIANAE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...VAUGHAN
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...KINO
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