127
FXHW60 PHFO 031352
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 AM HST WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION, INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY.
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING, SIMILAR TO
WHAT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. A MORE TYPICAL
(DRIER BUT NOT DRY) TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
YESTERDAY HAS LARGELY MOVED WEST OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND. AS SUCH, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS ARE NOW FOCUSED WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF LEEWARD
COASTS. HOWEVER, HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE. THE EARLY MORNING 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
LIHUE SHOWED THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHT REMAINS ELEVATED AT AROUND
14,000 FEET WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, WHILE THE
HILO SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE INVERSION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
TO AROUND 9,000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS REDUCED TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES.
THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHOWER COVERAGE, WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING, WILL BE THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE REGION. A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND A NEW STRONGER CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH, ENSURING MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SMALLER POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME
UNTIL CLOSER TO ARRIVAL. THEREFORE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SOME DAYS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWERS THAN OTHERS, AND THE
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR JUNE.
HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW
FROM THURSDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE THIS MORNING, WITH THE LAST OF ANY ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF KAUAI BY THE LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN. BROADLY ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD
KAUAI AND OAHU, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
8000 FEET ALL AREAS OF THE STATE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
WE RETURN TO BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES AS THE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS EXPANDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REACH AND REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE WARNING LEVEL THRESHOLD OF 15 FEET FACES TODAY AS A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES THROUGH. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BARBERS POINT
BUOY OBSERVED A JUMP TO AROUND 5 FEET, 16 SECOND SWELL OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUES TO OBSERVE SWELL NEAR THAT LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURF MAY LINGER AROUND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY.
A SMALL BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES PROVIDED BY A SMALL,
SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FADE TODAY BEFORE A
RELATIVELY LARGER NORTH SWELL PROVIDES ANOTHER BUMP TO SURF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE EASING OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD, WITH HEIGHTS RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI LEEWARD
SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...QUESADA
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