974
FXHW60 PHFO 031951
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
951 AM HST WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS COULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN
KAUAI COUNTY. A MORE TYPICAL (DRIER BUT NOT DRY) TRADE WIND
PATTERN WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN BRIEFLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, SHOWERS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND
YESTERDAY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. NO CHANGES TO THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST, AS A RETURN TO RELATIVELY DRY TRADES IS STILL EXPECTED
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM HST WED JUN 3 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
YESTERDAY HAS LARGELY MOVED WEST OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND. AS SUCH, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS ARE NOW FOCUSED WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF LEEWARD
COASTS. HOWEVER, HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE. THE EARLY MORNING 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
LIHUE SHOWED THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHT REMAINS ELEVATED AT AROUND
14,000 FEET WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, WHILE THE
HILO SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE INVERSION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
TO AROUND 9,000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS REDUCED TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES.
THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHOWER COVERAGE, WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING, WILL BE THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE BY THIS EVENING AS THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE REGION. A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND A NEW STRONGER CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH, ENSURING MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SMALLER POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME
UNTIL CLOSER TO ARRIVAL. THEREFORE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SOME DAYS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWERS THAN OTHERS, AND THE
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR JUNE.
HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW
FROM THURSDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER KAUAI TODAY AS A CONVERGENT
BAND SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN
EFFECT FOR WINDWARD KAUAI, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
LATER TODAY.
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 8000 FEET
ALL LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS BREEZY
TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS IF TRADES STRENGTHEN
ANY MORE. TRADES MAY EASE TUESDAY.
A PEAKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PRODUCING SURF WELL ABOVE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND NEAR THE WARNING LEVEL OF 15 FEET THIS
MORNING. OFFSHORE NOAA BUOYS 51002 AND 51004 REGISTERED SWELL OF 6
TO 7 FEET AT 17 SECONDS OVERNIGHT, AND NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE SWELL AT AROUND 6 FEET THIS MORNING AS THE
SWELL PEAKS. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER BY EVENING,
WITH SOUTH SHORE SURF LIKELY DROPPING BELOW THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 10 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL FALL TO
MODERATE LEVELS FRIDAY AND WILL FADE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SMALLER
PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES, A SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND AND PEAK FRIDAY BEFORE EASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY THEN HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
WAIANAE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...WROE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page