229
FXHW60 PHFO 040024
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
224 PM HST WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WE'LL
HAVE TYPICAL MOISTURE LEVELS, SO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL SEE
THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MODERATE TO BREEZY.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON'S RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA, AND MOSTLY ON KAUAI. SKIES WERE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT A RETURN TO A TYPICAL JUNE TRADE WIND PATTERN
FROM TONIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ALOFT, A BROAD, AND AT
TIMES STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL
FORM PART OF A "HIGH OVER LOW" PATTERN. THE "LOW" PART OF THIS
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEAR THE STATE, BUT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES THE LOW WILL BE TOO WEAK TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER. RATHER, THE "HIGH" PART TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP KEEP
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE (ALSO CENTERED TO OUR NORTH) AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRADE WINDS GOING. WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
NORMAL PW VALUES (1.2 TO 1.4), WE EXPECT A NORMAL AMOUNT OF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS, MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA.
WITH THAT SAID, IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL-SCALE INCREASES IN
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE COMING WEEK. EACH TIME THIS HAPPENS, WE'LL SEE A SMALL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THESE ARE NOT FORECAST WELL BY THE MODELS
UNTIL 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT GENERALLY, AND NONE ARE SHOWING UP IN THAT
TIME FRAME IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FINALLY, TROPICAL STORM AMANDA REMAINS FAR TO OUR ESE AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR IN HAWAII'S WEATHER.
AVIATION
A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT TRADE SHOWERS DUE IN THURSDAY.
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 6000 FEET
ALL LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS BREEZY
TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. TRADES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY.
A LARGE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECLINE
TONIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING SOUTH SHORE SURF ABOVE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THRESHOLD INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE NOAA BUOY
51002 HAS BEEN SHOWING A SHIFT TOWARD LOWER PERIODS SINCE THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT DECLINE IN SWELL AT 5 TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER REMAINING ELEVATED NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING
THRESHOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL BEGIN A
SLOW DECLINE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 10 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL
FALL TO MODERATE LEVELS FRIDAY AND WILL FADE SUNDAY, ANOTHER
LONG-PERIOD PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES, A SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY, PEAK FRIDAY, THEN EASE OVER THE WEEKEND. A SMALL
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF ALONG
EAST- FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY, THOUGH SOME AREAS EXPOSED TO WRAPPING NORTH
SWELL COULD BE SLIGHTLY LARGER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEAR
AVERAGE EAST SHORE SURF WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
WAIANAE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...WROE
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