586
FXHW60 PHFO 041352
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 AM HST THU JUN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS, WITH MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, THOUGH MOST SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE,
MODERATE TO BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO TO
HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER, AS IT WILL REMAIN WEAK.
INSTEAD, THE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH. TRADES MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.
OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES,
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THE TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AS BREEZY TRADES
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS.
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 8000 FEET
ALL LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS BREEZY
TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AND BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TRADES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
A LARGE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE
TODAY WHILE MAINTAINING SOUTH SHORE SURF ABOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. NEARSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO OBSERVE THIS SWELL IN THE
4 TO 5 FEET, 15 SECOND RANGE, WHILE OFFSHORE BUOY 51002 SHOWS THE
SWELL HEIGHT DROPPING BELOW 4 FEET. BY THIS EVENING, SURF IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO MODERATE LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
FADE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LONG- PERIOD PULSE OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND PEAKS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES, A SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK EARLY FRIDAY, THEN EASE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TINY WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY, THOUGH SOME AREAS EXPOSED TO WRAPPING NORTH SWELL
COULD BE SLIGHTLY LARGER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEAR AVERAGE EAST
SHORE SURF WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI LEEWARD
SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...QUESADA
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