042
FXHW60 PHFO 060114
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
314 PM HST FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PUSHING SHOWERS OVER MOSTLY WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
A 1030 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING STABLE BREEZY TRADE
WINDS AND SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO FAVOR THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED BASED ON PERIODIC AREAS OF
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH WITH THE TRADES.
BY THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A FRONT PASSING BY FAR TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS COULD PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST,
DECREASING TRADE WIND SPEEDS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY MOVE OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY SPILL OVER INTO
LEEWARD AREAS. MOSTLY VFR. IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS, THERE'S A 50%
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR AND A 10% CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS BELOW 8000 FEET AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 8KFT FOR
AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS. WE EXPECT
THIS TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO STEADY
TRADES.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST EDGES CLOSER TO THE STATE. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TRADE
WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL THAT PRODUCED ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING SHORES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
INTO THIS WEEKEND. NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING THIS SWELL TO
STILL BE NEAR 3 FEET, 14 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OFFSHORE BUOY
51002 HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE DAY, HINTING AT THE DROP TO FOLLOW
ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRESH, LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY. THE SOURCE OF THIS NEW SWELL IS A STORM-FORCE LOW THAT
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND LAST WEEKEND, PRODUCING A LARGE
SWATH OF 50 KNOT WINDS AND 30 TO 45 FOOT SEAS, WITH THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY AIMED EAST OF HAWAII. HOWEVER, A FRACTION OF THIS LONG-
PERIOD ENERGY WILL REACH OUR SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER ERROR BAR IN REGARDS TO
ITS SIZE. MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE A SMALL TO MODERATE SIZED SWELL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY FADE INTO MIDWEEK.
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES, A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH SWELL
PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TINY WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...FARRIS
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