292
FXHW60 PHFO 061937
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
937 AM HST SAT JUN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, THE BACKGROUND FLOW MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT SHOWER COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
CUMULUS, BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE BREEZY TRADES TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUING TO DRIVE BREEZY
EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BATCHES OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL PERIODICALLY USHER IN MORE
SHOWERS ON THESE TRADES, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPTICK EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM HST SAT JUN 6 2026
CURRENT (AS OF 3AM), SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
MAINLY IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. A 1030 MB HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STABLE AND BREEZY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY IN
THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BY THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A FRONT PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS COULD PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST,
DECREASING TRADE WIND SPEEDS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY, LEADING TO A SUBTLE DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND WITH THE EXPECTED DROP IN THE TRADES, THE SCA
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI FOR SUNDAY AND AT LEAST MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED AND DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT,
TRADES WILL DROP FURTHER AND ALLOW THE SCA TO BE CANCELLED
ENTIRELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT SWELL
THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS
ARE MEASURING THE DROPPING SWELL AT AROUND 2.5 FT 14 SECONDS THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE INCONSISTENT SETS TO JUNE
AVERAGE. AS THIS SWELL FADES LATE SUNDAY, LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
OF THE NEXT SOUTH SHOULD ARRIVE. THE NEW SWELL WAS AIMED WELL
EAST OF HAWAII, AND WHILE THIS MEANS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE RECEIVED LOCALLY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTH SHORE SURF TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN JUNE AVERAGE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
IS DUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES, A SMALL SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
FADE TONIGHT, AND A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE TINY
NORTH SHORE SURF EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS
EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...WROE
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