563
FXHW60 PHFO 070118
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
318 PM HST SAT JUN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW, MAINLY
FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE
BACKGROUND FLOW MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO SUPPLY VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, WITH
THE AFTERNOON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT LIHUE AND HILO SHOWING STRONG
INVERSIONS AT 5,000 FT AND 7,000 FEET RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM CUMULUS, BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
USHERED INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS UNDER THE INVERSION ON THE
BREEZY TRADES INTO THE EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK REVOLVES AROUND GRADUAL FLUCTUATIONS
IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF MINOR BATCHES OF MOISTURE
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE CONTINUING TO DRIVE BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN GET PUSHED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOR THE LATTER END OF NEXT
WEEK, BACKGROUND WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, BRINGING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS AND PARTIAL CLEARING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES THROUGH SUNDAY AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY, LEADING TO A SUBTLE DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND WITH THE EXPECTED DROP IN THE TRADES, THE SCA
HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
BE WEAKENED AND DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, TRADES WILL DROP
FURTHER AND ALLOW THE SCA TO BE CANCELLED ENTIRELY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT SWELL
THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS
ARE MEASURING THE DROPPING SWELL AT JUST OVER 2 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS PRODUCING INCONSISTENT SETS TO
NEAR JUNE AVERAGE. AS THIS SWELL FADES LATE SUNDAY, LONG-PERIOD
FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT SOUTH SHOULD ARRIVE. THE NEW SWELL WAS
AIMED WELL EAST OF HAWAII, AND WHILE THIS MEANS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE RECEIVED LOCALLY, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH SHORE SURF TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN JUNE AVERAGE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS DUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND.
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES, A SMALL SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
FADE TONIGHT, AND A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE TINY
NORTH SHORE SURF EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST- FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS
EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...WROE
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