919
FXHW60 PHFO 071310
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 AM HST SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW, MAINLY
FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE
BACKGROUND FLOW MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH LIMITED SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
REVOLVES AROUND GRADUAL FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AND THE
TIMING OF MINOR BATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUING TO
DRIVE BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN GET
PUSHED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BACKGROUND WINDS MAY BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, BRINGING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, BUT WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AT TIMES AN AIRMET FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA),
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS, WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND LATER
THIS MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE TRADES. DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED AND DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT,
TRADES WILL DROP FURTHER AND ALLOW THE SCA TO BE CANCELLED
ENTIRELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT SOUTH SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHOW UP ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND BUMP UP SURF TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
JUNE AVERAGE, BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT THIS SWELL
TO FADE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
SWELL IS DUE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE TINY NORTH SHORE SURF
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST- FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY, THEN SLOWLY DECLINE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page